EP 80: What If The “Bad Fluke Season” Is You?

Fluke season has anglers arguing like it’s a sport of its own, especially along New Jersey from LBI down toward Cape May. One crew posts double digits, the next crew calls it a ghost town, and the comment section jumps straight to blame. We slow it all down and ask a better question: what if the fish are here, but the conditions are forcing you to fish differently than last summer?

Dave and I dig into the “tons of shorts, barely any keepers” reality and why that alone can make a season feel terrible even when fluke numbers are solid. We talk commercial fishing myths versus how quotas and permits actually work, then pivot to what consistently moves the needle for summer flounder: water temperature, upwelling, and the way yo-yo conditions stall migration and pin fish tight to structure. When the water cools, they get lethargic, bury in sand, and tuck behind wrecks and reefs, so sloppy drifts and fast jigging miss the zone that matters.

We also get into practical fluke fishing tactics you can apply right away: slowing your presentation, controlling drift speed, spot locking tighter, and leaning into natural bait and scent like whole squid, strip baits, minnows, and fresh Gulp. Heavy rain and runoff change salinity and clarity, so we cover when to slide toward inlets, when to wait for a couple tide cycles, and why deep water can be the answer during the hottest stretches.

If you fish Mid-Atlantic fluke, Barnegat Inlet, LBI back bays, nearshore wrecks, or the surf bite later in the season, you’ll walk away with a clearer plan and a lot less noise. Subscribe, share this with a fishing buddy who’s struggling, and leave a review with your best fluke adjustment this season.

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Transcript

Hot Weather Fluke Teaser

Bayside Dave 0:00

Look for the deep waters when it gets this hot out. You know, you don't necessarily have to go out front, you know. Eventually in into August, August is when they start running out to those offshore pieces.

Welcome And The Fluke Controversy

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 0:16

Hello and welcome back to the Fat Dad Fishing Show. I'm your host, Rich Natoli, back again this week, and we've got to go back to Fluke. We have to talk about Fluke. That's what we're gonna do. We have the lovely base side Dave coming on, and we're gonna talk about a topic that is just blowing up on social media all over the place. And it's basically what the heck is wrong with flounder season this year in certain areas. Some people are having great years, some people aren't. And we're seeing I was talking with Dave, and we're seeing a lot of opinions, a lot of blame to go around for what's going on with Fluke this season. And we're just gonna talk through it, and I think we both have our own opinions as to what's going on with Fluke season. And uh we're gonna talk about

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Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 1:02

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Why Reports Feel So Split

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 2:54

So let me bring on Dave. Dave, good to see you. Welcome back.

Bayside Dave 2:58

Hey everyone.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 3:00

It's good to see you. We were, I was just in the opener saying we were having a conversation on the phone, and man, there are a lot of people saying the fluke season is terrible and there's stuff going on, and there's there people are slinging blame on social media. Yeah. And you and I have our own opinions, research-driven opinions. And look, we just figured this is a good time. Instead of going into all the how-to tactics and all that stuff, why don't we just have a conversation about fluke season and and what's going on? And I I want to set this up the right way. There are places where people saying banner year, they're pulling in double digits. You know, New York, I'm seeing a lot of really good stuff. I'm seeing some good stuff in Maryland. There is this apparent social media dead zone between just north of LBI all the way down to Cape May in New Jersey, which they're saying, which a lot of people, not all, but a lot of people are saying it's pretty well dead and it's a terrible season. Then every once in a while somebody says, no, it's not. Look at this, and they send a cool picture of some nice fish. But let's start off. What's one of the opinions that you keep seeing when when you're on social media or when you're talking to the the hordes of people that follow you in LBI?

Bayside Dave 4:16

Well, honestly, you know, I I think it was just a really slow start this year. And when, you know, we all know that we had some really, really cold weather this winter and it really chilled the temperature of the of the ocean waters, had a lot of south winds coming up in the spring that really didn't warm up the water that that great because of all the upwelling. You know uh striper season started out a little slow, but then it went off the charts, you know, off the surf. And we could talk more about that on another show. But yeah, I think it the season just really started out really slow. Um you know we're always talking about blaming the cold water and all that stuff and and and the different wind and everything. But I I I see now that the last couple weeks we're seeing better reports. But the reports that I've been getting and that we've been seeing is tons of shorts, tons of shorts. It's not that it's dead and there's no fish out there, there's just a lot of short fish being caught, and and the ratio of shorts to keepers you know is very low. You know, I was out with a few a few guys last Saturday out front on our way to the uh Garden State South, and we actually didn't fish that actual spot, but we hit a couple spots on the way, some good producing uh spots that my buddy knows very well. And we had over 50 fish and one keeper. Yeah, and that's what I keep hearing, you know, so many range. So many shorts, so many shorts and and and and you know, and just a couple keepers here and there. And then there's guys who, you know, kind of move around and pick at it and get a few big ones and figure they, hey, they had a good day, which I agree. You know, you're you're you're picking up fish, you know, you're having action, you know, you you picked up, you know, what did they say that there was four guys, 80 fish that day, and they had six keepers. You know, you don't need 80 keepers, you know. Having everybody loves to have action, everybody loves catching fish. It just sucks when you're just not catching. Um that's out front. The bays are hit or miss. It all depends on the area, I think. I've had guys that have been fishing the bay since the beginning of the season and they and they are not having much luck at all. And then I have other guys that are just you know slamming it, you know. Yeah, I don't know if it's the the different people with different tactics or the different areas. I'm not out every day, I'm not fishing every area, so I personally can't say, you know, if there's a problem. I really don't think there is a problem, but you know, you always get the people, and you know, I think there's good seasons and there's bad seasons, you know. Uh I was talking with Greg Kudnick from Fisherman's Headquarters this afternoon about the subject, and he was saying how last fall, like like you know, September when the season was still open, he said they were just killing it, slamming it with nice size fish. And then he had friends of his who run commercial draggers, the net boat, the net draggers that you call them, out of Barnegat Light, called them up, they're like, they're like, Greg, get get out to get out here. This is in December, and you're allowed to target fluke. It's not illegal to target fluke all year round. You're just not allowed to keep them off season. And uh they were get they they were out dragging, he says, get out here and and have fun catching 10 pounders because they're out here, it's it's insane. So it's not like there aren't any fish out there. I think the problem is, like I said, it's the shorts to keeper ratio that are driving people crazy.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 7:56

Yeah,

Short Fish Everywhere What It Means

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 7:57

and I think there are there's definitely some reasons. I think there are some scientific reasons behind there. Before we jump into that, let's talk about one of the one of the popular things that I've been seeing, and I know that you've been seeing and hearing, there's a lot of the traditional blame. It's all about the commercial guys. The commercial guys have ruined us this year. And I know you have some information on that. Let's let's talk about the data behind it, and then you know, we can each give our opinion. Is it a fact or is it a myth for for this year specifically? But listen, let let let's let me frame this whole thing out. 2024 was a pretty tough year, right? Yeah, there are some reasons for that. 2025 was a very good year for most people. It was a very good year. And then this year is kind of in between the two. And you know, and the one thing that I am seeing is people saying it's commercial, it's commercial, it's commercial. It's this non non-ending, forever, infinite, holy war between wreck and commercial. So let's talk about that. What what kind of information do you have on that?

Bayside Dave 9:02

Yeah, I mean, I my my buddy John uh Stubing, who's the uh vice president of of the club that I'm in, Phil Travber Fishing Club, he he knows a few guys who are commercial fishermen and they drag nets for fluke. These guys all have quotas. They have to have a permit and they have daily quotas, they have monthly quotas that they're not allowed to go over. What they do is they have to pick the day and then how how much they will take on that trip without going over their quota. And if they do go over the quota, say they're allowed 3,000 pounds that day and they pull into the dock with 4,000 pounds, they get a big fine for that. If if if they have to, if they're only allowed to take 3,000 pounds that day and they they they come in with 3,200, they might not get a fine for that, but they're gonna throw 200 on the next trip. They're gonna say, all right, you can't get 3,000 next trip, you you can only get you know 2800. So it's it's very carefully and and very strictly regulated with these guys. And as of here we go, as of now in 2026, the summer flounder fishery has not been overfished by the commercial guys. I mean it's it's almost impossible for these guys to overfish the the quotas. There are other boats that do come up from, say, Virginia and stuff, and and and they'll come in and and they'll they'll they'll drag and get some of their quota and come back come back down. But a lot of these guys they're actually buying permits that are available in order to do that. So they're still being regulated by the quotas. There's only a certain amount of permits that are out there. It's not just however many per however many people want to buy permits. Here they all are. Right. You know, there is a regulation on the amount of people who are allowed to fish commercially. Now I'm not I'm not here sticking up for the commercial guys, I'm just stating facts from research. There's also research that is out there. Uh here's a chart that I kind of printed out, and it shows the catch, it shows the recreational landings and discards, and it shows the commercial landings and discards. Now, the commercial landings and discards are the dark color, and the recreational is the light color, so you can see that recreational is pulling in twice as many fish as commercial guys are.

Speaker 11:29

Right.

Bayside Dave 11:29

But again, I'm not saying there's a problem because of all the people that I've been talking to and all the reports that I've been getting, there's there's not a shortage of fluke. Like you said, it was bad in 2024, it was it was good in 2025. You know, we we have we have weather conditions, we have all kinds of stu stuff that goes on with with the with the with the environment, with the ocean. You know, you can't predict anything as far as you know what kind of action we're gonna get when we go out fishing for fluke, you know, or any other species, uh, for that matter. So yeah, I mean that's about all I have to say about the commercial they're regulated and and they're they don't go, they don't just they're they're not it's not a free-for-all out there for these guys, you know. They have their quotas and they have their, you know, they get fined if they if they drag in too many, you know.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 12:26

Yeah, it's not like Omega. No, it's it's a different, it's a different commercial thing. And I don't care if Omega here is Omega sucks. Omega is destroying everything. Yeah, it's the these are different, this is a different thing.

Bayside Dave 12:40

Yeah, and it's not like it's not like me and you can go in on on go go go let's go buy a big commercial boat with nets on it and and go drag up fluke and sell it to the market. We can't do that. We need permits to do that. Yeah, we get in a lot of trouble if we go out there with a boat without permits. Yeah, you know, so yeah, it's very highly regulated.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 12:57

Yeah, do you have any idea? You may not what the fines are for. No, I don't.

Bayside Dave 13:01

I I I didn't I never got a chance to ask what they are, but I I I I could imagine that they don't want to get fines, whatever they are.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 13:09

Yeah, I I'm here here's my thing. So I I didn't do as much research into I tend to think the entire generally speaking, the the recreational versus commercial is just an easy way to sling uh you know, sling shots at each other.

Bayside Dave 13:26

Yeah, push the blame on something, you know.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 13:27

Yeah, yeah, and and I I don't know that that's necessarily the case for a fluke. I see a thousand other reasons for why people are having difficulty this year and why some people are having success. I can see why it's happening, and I'm gonna make a lot of assumptions, but I'm gonna back it up with a little bit of science too. So I'm gonna say, let's just declare it. I I believe you agree it's a myth that it's the commercial guys destroying fluke fishing this year.

Speaker 13:57

Yeah.

Commercial Fishing Blame And The Data

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 13:58

And I want to dive into and you had mentioned it a couple of times. The water temperatures have a I mean, i it's all about water temperatures. And let's let's go back to 2024. And look, this is going to be different for different areas in the mid-Atlantic, right? So let's talk water temperatures in 2024. I specifically, because I saw most of the the complaints and the concerns coming in just north of LBI, down through Cape May, New Jersey. I saw some spotty things up in New York. And actually, I didn't really see much much complaining or or negative feedback about the fishing in Maryland or Delaware. So it was really that section of New Jersey. So most of New Jersey, but not the whole thing. And I looked at that and I got some data. So let's talk 2024, where I think I know I didn't fish that year, I was sick, but everybody said if you're gonna get cancer, this was the year to do it because fluke sucks. And I was like, well, there you go. There, there's a little positive for me. I didn't miss anything in 2024. So let's call that the deep freeze, right?

Bayside Dave 15:08

Yeah.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 15:09

And that was let's take it through the season. So late May, in that area I talked about, LBI essentially, down to Cape May, the average water temperature was between 56 and 58 degrees. So that is definitely within the fluke's tolerance level. Right. We get into June and it just stayed in the low 60s. So it was around 62 degrees in that that time frame. It bounced up to 64 a couple days, but generally speaking, it was between 60 and 62 degrees.

Bayside Dave 15:40

Yeah, we had a lot of south winds that year.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 15:42

Yeah, yeah. And this is this is where it really hits. So early July, it crashed. And that's where you got severe upwelling. You got the south winds, severe upwelling, and the average temperature dropped into the mid-50s. Now you're getting a little bit below the ideal zone for these for these fluke, like significantly below. So that's what happened. And the the problem is it stayed in the 50s and low 60s all the way through July, uh almost up until the end of July, and then after that. I didn't really didn't look after that because we're not there this year, so I can't compare anything. Yeah. But it stayed pretty cold. Now ideally those temperatures are going to be in the low 70s at this time of year. So let's go and take a look at last year. So 2025, 59 degrees in late May, so very similar to the previous year. But then what happened is it goes up to 66, 67 degrees, and it started rising consistently. It it it so as you get through June to the end of June, it's up in the mid to upper 60s. This is normal. This is normal patterns so far temperature-wise for summer flounder. Then we get to July. Now, again, 2024, that's when the temperature crashed to the mid-50s. It warmed and it warmed quick. So you went up around six degrees in the second half of July on average last year in that zone between LBI and Cape May. That is normal. So what happens? They head out the inlets, they go out to the deeper wrecks, and that's where you get the offshore bite is really picking up, and it pretty much just stabilized around 73 to 74 degrees.

Bayside Dave 17:26

And you're talking ocean temps.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 17:28

Yeah, these are random temperatures throughout.

Bayside Dave 17:32

The bays are always a lot warmer because of how shallow they are.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 17:34

Yeah, so these are the the the it's going to be a lot of offshore stuff there too.

Speaker 17:39

Yeah.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 17:39

Now, uh now obviously look, keep in mind it's different temperature down at the bottom than it is up top, but those were the the surface water temperatures. Look at this year, it's the same start in May. We get into June, and this is the this is where I think people are getting hung up. The temperature has been anywhere between 60 degrees and 70 degrees in June, 60 69 degrees throughout the month. So it would be up to 69. Two days later it's down to 63, then we go up to 67, then it would go down to 60. So it was bouncing in between that area. Now, what happens in the biology of the fish when that happens? It's not kicking off its normal migration pattern. So as they start to leave the backwaters, they don't turn around and go back if they hit cold water. They stop and they stall where they are and they find structure and they hide behind structure. You get into early July, the water temperatures that were inching up into the 69, they now drop down to 63 as we get some more upwelling. Nothing like 2024, but there's upwelling. So now you have the low 60s as the water temperatures. And at this point, it's now stabilizing between 72 and 77. That's a big range. So it's still a lot of variability. So to me, what that's screaming is you need to be adjusting your approach and not assuming that, you know, the the average person that doesn't follow, you know, they just want to go out and wet a line and they just want to catch fluke. They don't do any research, and there's nothing wrong with that. They're not watching podcasts, they're not, they're not reading articles, they just go down to the shore. They're like, hey, I got the I got the morning, I'm jumping on the boat and going fishing.

Bayside Dave 19:20

Yeah.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 19:20

They're going where they went last year. And where they went last year is not where they should be going this year.

Speaker 19:26

Right.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 19:27

Right? The fluke are going to be behaving differently. They're going to be stacked up tighter on structure, very tight. When the water gets colder, they get more sluggish, which means stop the skinner jigging and slow it down because they're not going to be as aggressive. Go with the slower jig, dead stick the thing, use some natural baits, get some more scent in the water. And those are just some of the things.

Bayside Dave 19:49

I was just thinking that because you know, with the colder water, they're like, well, where do the fish go? It's not that they go anywhere, they get lethargic. They're not they're not as as aggressive with their feeding. And you'll see that when you're catching fish. Last year, when it was really warm out, I was catching 14, 15-inch fluke that were like this, because they were feeding like crazy. And they were they were very healthy. And this was even earlier in the season, real, real fat fish. When it gets colder out, and like the fish I've been catching this year, they're not as heavy. You know, they're not feeding as much. You know, they're there, they're just not feeding as much.

Speaker 20:25

Yeah.

Bayside Dave 20:25

So that's where you have to get your you change your approach. Like you said, slow it down. What we do, uh I mean, always I'm a surf fisherman mostly. Yeah. And I always say the slower the better. And sometimes you just pause your retrieve and just keep it tight and just kind of move it. And if you feel a bite, just stop and just keep it in their face. Because if you keep going, they might not have the the energy or or the want to keep moving and to be aggressive because it's colder. So they're can they're they're conserving their energy. Just give it to them, put it in their face. When we go out front and we're at Rex or Reeps or whatever, we'll spot lock and just drop down and just kind of jig it around and then and then work a spot for a little while and then move it around and stop and work a spot for a little while. And when you're drifting, you're you're basically you're a slave of of the wind and the currents. Anything above a knot and a half, you're you're drifting too fast. So if you get a 0.7, 0.8 knot drift, that's you know, that's that's the max that I feel you're looking at, that you're looking for. Anything over a knot and a half, up to two knots, you're you're you're starting to move, and the fish don't have it in them to just be as aggressive and follow and and strike that that you see in those videos where they're just following and striking and all that stuff. I think that just happens in the warmer water, and that's where we have to change our tactics. And like you said, maybe something with more scent. More natural baits, maybe get get get the minnows down there more. I've been using whole squid. You know, those blue boxes of frozen squid that you get. And I those things are getting slammed, man. The squid, you know, four or five, six inches long. I'll use a six-o octopus hook on the top. And then I'll I'll take a uh stinger and and a four-o and just pop it in the head. And of course, leave that that stinger line loose so it doesn't bind up the the so it looks more natural. And just drop it down and just kind of either jig it around and slowly up and down and just kind of give it like a swim look to it. If you are drifting, you know, just kind of I I don't believe in the quick jerk, little, little jerks. I like just giving it the you know, let it swim. I I I don't know. I that's just me. I'm not saying don't do it the quick jerky way because that probably works too. But I just like a a larger bait. I feel just it just looks more natural when it's like swimming and stuff at a slower jig. And and they've been slamming those things, and I really love them. So yeah, that's and and you like like you said, the spot, maybe strip baits. Strip baits are fantastic. You know, when they're slower, they need something more than something visual to attract them. And yeah, they are attracted by scent and you know, of course, visual. But you gotta change it up a little bit, slow down and give them some stinky.

Water Temperature And Upwelling Explained

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 23:23

Yeah, and and let's you know, let's talk a little bit about it. Again, uh I I like to look at a little bit of the biology behind everything, whether, you know, not just the fish itself, but also the baits. I'm not gonna talk much about the baits right now, but they're gonna behave differently in in in different temperatures. But let's talk about what you're gonna do. Let's say, let's say you have one of those drops. I mean, we're we're just all over the place with water temperatures, up and down, up and down. You're gonna see a let's say you see a cold temperature start coming in and you are fishing out front. So you're out of the inlet, you're off somewhere looking for wrecks. Oftentimes, fluke fishermen take the approach of you know, close enough. Right? It's close enough. Well, think of what the fluke is doing in the cold water. So let's say you have upwelling, you have a southern current, it's cold water coming up in the 50s, it's gonna drop the the entire water column down in temperature. The fluke are going to be on the bottom because that's where they live. So where are they gonna go? They're gonna go tight to structure, very tight, and they're gonna tuck in behind it so that they don't have a continuous stream of 50 degree water coming over top of them.

Speaker 24:33

Yeah, go down current.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 24:34

Yeah, so so go to the opposites, go to the north side of the structure and get in tight. Spock lock spot lock that that oh I almost said a bad word. Spotlock that thing right over top and hit that structure and just be ready to lose rigs because that's where the fluke are. They're not gone. But you drifting on a reef ball within 10 yards isn't gonna work today.

Bayside Dave 24:56

No, but it will be. They do you know protect themselves from that stream of of water and and get behind a structure like that. And that that's a really that's a really great thing to tell people to do. Uh well, yeah. And think about ice.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 25:12

When when you're over sandy bottoms, what are they gonna do when the 50 degree water is coming through? They're gonna get under the sand, which means they're not chasing. Slow it goes back to slow it down, get sent in the water. They're still gonna see it. Yeah, but they need to they need to see something enticing enough that they're going to raise out of that sand and they're gonna they're gonna turn into the cold water and they're gonna follow and take it, right? So they're gonna be facing into the water, under the sand, and they're gonna have to come up. So behind structure under sand now. That's not necessarily how it is when it's 80 degree temperatures, and they're just cruising in like, you know, the cold water coming through 70. They're like, cool, love it. I'm just gonna hang out.

Bayside Dave 25:54

Get more customer, spikes them up a little bit, get gets them going. Yeah.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 25:57

It does. So, so to me, I think what's actually happening is people are treating it like July of last year. It's not like stop fishing the calendar. It's not the calendar, it's the conditions. Yes, tides, tides factor into it, tide cycles, and so on and so forth. You will often see in this kind of yo-yo environment of temperatures that we have that they compress their feeding times. They're they're not as comfortable in that cold water, they're not as aggressive, so they will feed in in fits and starts, typically around a tide change, right? Think about it. The water slows down, the baits slow down, everything that they're looking for slows down. So they don't have to work as hard in this cold water. They will pop out of the bottom, they'll feed, that tide gets ripping again, and they're back into cover and they're just kind of shutting it down for a while. So I think there's there's there's some biological things that we need to keep in mind. Now, take a look at some things that you can do. Now, I went back a little bit ago and I mentioned this. If they're let's say the water, it's it, let's say it's 2025, everything is working the way that the average flounder likes it, right? They're in the backwaters, they're getting ready to go through those inlets, they're pushing out. Now the cold water comes in. They're gonna stop where they are. They are not, if they're three miles or four miles offshore, they're not gonna turn around and go back to the backwaters. They're not. The average fluke will move about a half a mile, maybe a mile to a mile and a half in a day with the tides. So they'll go up, they'll go down, you know, as the tide comes in, they'll start moving in. I think a lot of it is chasing baits. On the way out, they'll they'll shift going out, you know, they'll go with the tide and you know, just kind of let it take them. It is very rare for them to move more than a mile and a half in a day. So if they're offshore and upwelling comes by, they're not they're not turning around and coming in five miles. They're just not going to do it. What what is the the the university down near Atlantic City that does the the research? Ruckers? Ruckers, yeah, Ruckers. Ruckers. So they they actually published years ago some information about Flounder, and they actually tracked them and they track their movements. So they were pinging all over the place and they were tracking how far they move. This is where it came from. So I'm this is not rich making crap up to sound smart. I'm not smart.

Bayside Dave 28:20

We had we had a couple of guys speak at our speak at our club meeting uh uh last year, and they had those radio transmitters, then they've been following Fluke around for years, and they're still actively doing it.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 28:30

Yes, yeah, and that's where they they kind of determine that this is where they're gonna go. So let's say they're coming out, that temperature drops, and they're in the inlet. They're probably hanging within a half a mile of that inlet on the outside or on the inside, and that's where they're gonna be. Now, think about this. We just talked about the yo-yo and that they stop in a certain range and they'll kind of stay there until things kind of get figured out and get back to normal. I have seen more reports of eight plus pound fluke being caught south of LBI in the past week than I have seen in any summer in July in in my life. I mean, I see 28-incher, 29-incher, 27-incher, five and a half pounds, eight and a half pounds. Here's a 9.8 pounder that was pulled out, didn't quite make it.

Bayside Dave 29:15

We had a few here too, but go ahead.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 29:17

Yeah, so so it's it's yeah, well, I mean, you see them up there too, but yeah, but they're in the inlets. They should have been out of the if this if this were last year, they're not in the inlets, they've moved out. Yeah. But they're right.

Bayside Dave 29:29

We we we had and where we're still having guys in in the Barnate inlet off the jetty here pick picking up some really nice 25s and 26s, and then down on the on the south end of the island where the little leg inlet kind of goes, and they they have it's called the the north run, which goes right along out from where uh Holgate sticks out. Um and there's there's that just kind of body of water that's behind the uh the sandbar shoal that has formed between the north exit and the little leg inlet. There's like a whole body of water there, that inlet, and there's a lot of guys fishing in there, just picking up some real nice fish. But they're just picking a lot a lot of shorts, and then they're getting they're getting

Structure Positioning And Slower Presentations

Bayside Dave 30:09

a couple. There's some big ones out there, you know, they're they're there. I also heard, I don't know if this is like I mean, something that is a reason behind what's going on, or this is just I I mean, this is obviously something that just has been happening forever. That as fluke get larger, they kind of start moving north with their migration. Like instead of going directly east, they're gonna kind of go northeast, go up to where the mud hole is, where the Texas Tower is, and north of there, and and oh, over the years end up even up by Shrewsbury Rocks and Nantucket Shoals, all that area. I know the research shows that they generally uh you know come come back in to where they've been coming in all their lives, but I've heard that that the larger the fish get, the more north they just they kind of drift. And we've all heard that up by Nantucket Shoals and and Cape Cod and all that stuff, they're getting 12, 15 pounders on every trip.

Speaker 31:12

Yeah.

Bayside Dave 31:13

So have you heard that that is that something that's true, or is that just so I don't know.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 31:20

I tried to, I tried to find some what I would call credible data on that, and I I couldn't. I don't know if that's if that's true. However, I'll just say this the cooler water temperatures are you know, where they're not getting the extreme hot temperatures are going to be more conducive to these larger fluke. They just are, which is, you know, probably one of the reasons why southern flounder don't get nearly I mean, they get close to summer flounder, which is what we have.

Bayside Dave 31:50

Yeah.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 31:50

And Gulf Flounder don't get anywhere close to either of the two.

Bayside Dave 31:54

Yeah, that's that's another thing that that kind of made me think that that's what's going on because you get the the ones down in Delaware off off of Maryland and all that stuff. You know, the their their regulation size is is is 16 inches and and and the gill net size is 14 inches. So maybe because the the fish are smaller down there, they're allowing people to keep the smaller ones. But then again, the bigger ones, you know, when you're talking about you know, allowing people to take bigger fish, that's all the females. Yeah, those are all the uh breeders, you know. You're you're basically allowing people to take all the females out of the water. I mean, I don't know if that's something that we need to get into and and see what we think the right thing to do is. Should there be a slot?

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 32:35

I mean, you know, that slot was a disaster.

Bayside Dave 32:38

That I heard that was a disaster.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 32:41

That was an absolute disaster. Yeah, Dave. I I made the determination before that. So for those that aren't aware, it was a few years ago. You could you could keep one fish 18 inches and over in New Jersey, and you could keep two between 17 and 18 inches.

Bayside Dave 33:00

Right, yeah, that was a disaster.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 33:02

Or between between 17 and less than 18.

Bayside Dave 33:06

And less than 18, yeah, yeah.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 33:08

So I determined I was only going to go for the big ones, and if I only ended up with one keeper, then that's you know, so be it. I could not buy the smaller fish because I I don't, it's different fishing. You go different places, you have different fish.

Bayside Dave 33:24

I couldn't get the goddamn 17 and a half.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 33:26

Yeah, I I couldn't do it because I and part of it was self-inflicted. I couldn't bring myself to fish for small fish. No, you know, I don't look, fluke are not fun to reel in, right? They're they're fun to try to get to bite the hook, they don't fight very hard. Yeah, they're you know I get i see your thing, yeah.

Bayside Dave 33:46

You don't get a blue bridge down, you don't have a yeah, yeah.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 33:48

So I want to hook a big fish, even if I can't keep it. I want to hook a big fish, I'm gonna release it safely and and let it go. So for me, I hated it. I absolutely and then when I was trying to hit in I was fishing a tournament, I had my over, my over 18, and I'm like, well, now I can't place if I can't fill out you know at least one of the other two. I couldn't buy a fish in there. Yeah, you know, it's it's as soon as it's legal, you can't find it.

Bayside Dave 34:14

And then and then and then guys are calling and killing all the fish that they're releasing.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 34:18

Yeah, you can't really call flounder. No, you know, people they stick them in live wells, and I don't know. I've I've talked to both both firsthand and then through people that are pretty tight with some spear fishermen. And they've said repeatedly, like after opening day fluke, then when they're down there, it's just football fields of dead fluke going along the bottom. And they don't float, they don't float up, they just kind of like get washed with the currents right down the channels and right out. I don't know if it's true or not, but you know, the I and the first hand I spoke to one guy, one guy, and he said that yeah, it's it's amazing how many dead fluke show up the week that that fluke opens in New Jersey.

Bayside Dave 35:05

That's interesting because I always wonder where they get that. I'm not saying they get the data from them, but I always wondered how how how do you know that 10% are dying. And but when you when you're telling me that a guy actually sees it, that's wow.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 35:17

Yeah, he said he said it's like a football field of dead fluke. Yeah. Just kind of washing with the currents on the outgoing or and on the ingoing, incoming.

Bayside Dave 35:26

Yeah, I mean it just it just seems to me that the I don't know, I don't think there's a problem with the fluke population. I you know, like I said, it was a slow start. And you know, there's always more shorts than keepers, you know, and I guess this year it's it's it's it's been more for some I don't know.

Big Fish Myths Slots And Release Mortality

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 35:49

Yeah. Well, let's let's talk a little bit about where people are fishing, right? So I've seen some nice surf fluke being caught. I've seen some nice out front and some nice in the back and some really nice inlet. So they're they're catching some quality fish in all the areas. But I I do want to say for those that want to get on them and they want to kind of fish through this and kind of if you're struggling, turn it around. Take a step back. Start fishing this like you would a normal June. It's not, it may say July on the calendar, it's not necessarily July fishing. Now, if it's a hot day and the water temperatures where you are are up in the upper 70s, just fish it like July. But if you're out there and it's 72 degree water or 60 degree water, 68 degrees, look for the temperature breaks. Look for you still need the structure, you still need the predictable flow of bait into a certain area. They are ambushed predators, so find all of that, right? Find a nice drop-off at the mouth of a creek where warm water on the outgoing is flowing out into the cooler water, they'll stack. Flounder will stack in a spot if there's a significant temperature difference, and one temperature is comfortable and the other is not. So if you can find two or three degrees of difference, that's what I would be doing on those days where the water temperatures just drop. There was a comment in here, actually. Let me let me see if I can find it here. My mouse went to sleep. All right, hold on. It was about the South Shore, there it is, of Long Island. So let's put it up there. NYC Fish Chaser is having a good July on the South Shore of Long Island before these downpours started. Okay, so there are a couple of things. Let's talk about a couple of things there. The first thing is salinity. So yes, you can catch fluke damn near fresh water, right? They will go into the rivers, up the rivers, they don't have to stay below that salt line. They'll they'll move. They'll move in for short periods of time and move out. With that said, when there's heavy rain and downpours and you get a ton of runoff, that does change the salinity of the water. So if you're not sure what to do, you want to just for the salinity, start pushing towards the inlets and start pushing closer to the salt. The heavier the salt, the better for summer flounder and southern flounder as well. Gulf flounder, if you're watching in Florida, we do actually have Florida viewers and mostly listeners. The Gulf Flounder, they don't care. They don't care whether it's they're not going to worry about the salinity, but when you're southern flounder and summer flounder, they do. The second thing is think about the water temperatures and what those downpours do. They don't just dirty up the water when you have everything running off, you know, from all the creeks up in Pennsylvania down into New Jersey and down into the Delaware Bay and out of New York and you know, out into those bays, but you also have a change in temperature. Sometimes it's hot water that is coming out into those areas, and that can disperse fish as well. Sometimes it's very cold water, and that will that will change the entire thing. So you have to look at the temperatures and you have to make your adjustment. You have to look at the salinity, especially immediately after. You're going to want at least two or three tide cycles after like some of these areas. What would you get like three, four inches in an hour in LBI last week?

Bayside Dave 39:29

Yeah, yeah. We it was pretty pretty heavy, and then there was no fish for for about 12 hours.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 39:35

Yeah, I mean, because that water went into the ocean. That's where it ended up going. When it finally got out of the streets, it went into the ocean and it came off the mainland and everything. Some some places got five inches. Five inches.

Bayside Dave 39:48

We had it, it flooded, it flooded pretty bad here, and we we always do get some some flooding when it rains, but it was pretty hairy. So, yeah, there's a lot of runoff, there was a lot of weed in the water, there was a lot of chocolate water, and yeah, it just turned everything off.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 40:03

Yeah, so people have to and I'm not judging NYC fish chaser at all. I'm just saying, you know, that could be part of it, the salinity change, and what were the temperatures of the not the downpours of the water that's running off into those areas and what's that doing? Is it moving the fish further up? Is it moving them to the side of the areas that are running off? If you know, are they moving away from the rivers? Are they moving closer to the rivers? You have to you kind of have to become the fish whisperer and kind of determine what you think they're going to do to do based on those those factors and make your adjustment. But yeah, I do move.

Bayside Dave 40:43

If if they're sensitive to the you know salinity or lack, lack thereof, uh then you know the shallows are going to be a lot more affected than the deeper waters are, you know, because there's a more volume of water in the deeps than there are in the shallows, of course. That's obvious. So uh go deeper. Or like you said, get away from where the runoff is, go out towards the inlets, go out, go out front.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 41:08

I think that's one of the big things. You know, if you're fishing the Molaca, maybe you move away from the Molaca when you got five inches of rain coming out of it. You know, it's as simple as that. And don't move downstream from it because that's gonna push way out into the bay. Yeah, way out. That that fresh water is gonna push way out there. So you need a few tide cycles to clean that up, not just to clean up the water and all the crap that comes down with it, too, but to get that salinity back into it. So there, you know, there are so many things. But on these days where the temperature drops, I'll just go back to it. Look, you know, start fishing it like you do spring fluke. Look for the shallower areas, look for the increased temperatures. Mud flats are back in play. Again, they'll move a half a mile. So if you if you expect to catch, I'm thinking one sp one area specifically, it's about 35 feet deep. This is where in a standard July, I would be fishing right now. But if the water temperatures are down, you got about a half a mile that you can push back. They'll move, they'll move that half mile back into those sounds. They'll they'll sit in those trenches and those ditches, they'll go along those those salt marsh banks, the the sod banks. They'll they'll start moving back up in there. It's all within their range, and it's gonna be more comfortable for them. And as long as you don't have these torrential downpours, it's not necessarily gonna mess up the salinity.

Rain Runoff Salinity And Tide Cycles

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 42:31

Now, tomorrow, well, apparently we're back in this weather tomorrow. Oh, yeah, he said that.

Bayside Dave 42:36

Yeah. But you know, I've I've seen, like you said, with water temperature, I think that that's a big factor, uh, especially in the bays. I've noticed the last couple weeks, guys who are catching some really nice fish are in deep water, 20 to 30 feet even. And it because we've had such hot weather, we've had such strong sun, and it's it's long days, and the water temperature really heated up. We had guys measuring water temperatures of 84 degrees in in six, eight feet of water. Get get 12 feet, get 15 feet, get 16, 18 feet. Look for the 20s and 30s, 40 foot, you know, in in front of the in front of the lighthouse here, the Barney Lighthouse on LBI here, we have 40 feet of water coming around that corner. And there's a nice channel that runs in towards where we call it the gas dock. That that's just running into the bay, uh, traveling south from the lighthouse. There's a night that deep channel, that that's a 40-foot deep channel, and we had 26, 28-inch fluke being pulled out of there last week. But very, very slow drifts. Some guys are spot locking, just dropping down minnows. Try to get those tiger minnows, try to get those big fatties. Um, and even some spot, you know, there's a lot of spot being caught. There's there's a lot of croakers being caught. You know, anything that's small, smaller than 12 inch, you know, drop it down there, man. Those big fish. go for that big big uh go for that big bait but yeah look for the deep waters when it gets this hot out you know you don't necessarily have to go out front you know eventually in into August August is when they start running out to to those offshore pieces and as they're running offshore as they're coming out of the inlets they're gonna run up the surf too you know we do some real good surf fishing here in September you know we have our our derby uh our fall classic that that we we we run every year it's the 72nd year of it and we've been racking our brains pulling our hair out trying to get more people to to to sign up for it because things have been dropping off since the regulations of of of striped bass and and and the beach replenishments have have been you know kind of hurting the the the the shore fishing the beach fishing the surf fishing and so we opened it up at the end of August into you know so we can have all September to give to the people to to fish fluke which we added to the to the derby and we had a lot of return ins last year we had a lot of people weighing in uh fluke all all September and you know and for for years I mean I'm fishing the surf you know I'm out there at the end of October throwing SPs with with teasers and fluke are hitting them you know in in in into into you know mid-November even so yeah on their way out there if if there's if there's something for them to to you know if there's bait fish or or whatever I mean it doesn't even have to be bait fish you know most fish who are in the surf are eating what's being churned up and what's being churned up in the surf sand fleas and calico crabs every species of fish that I've ever harvested off the beach is full of sand fleas from two pound fluke to 40 pound bass. So yeah that's the time of year of course if you if you got a boat you're not gonna run along the shoreline but you're gonna go out front you know in in uh mid-August and in through September and into October and that's uh you're guaranteed to get some good good good fluking out there but uh for the surf fishermen we love it man we're we're out there uh every other day uh well into the end of September to the end of the season now catching fluke like crazy because they're moving out and they're just moving up the surf line as well so yeah yeah I'm waiting for I've seen some some pretty good reports I've seen a couple of reds pulled in already out of the surf.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 46:18

Oh cool yeah a couple of new jersey reds nothing nothing big some offshore which you you would you would think you'd get first before they start hitting the the suds but yeah I think I've seen two or three in the past week New Jersey redfish so it has to bode kind of well for the fluke right I mean they're they're typic well I guess you can catch them in really cold water actually November's a great time for redfish if you want to if you want to fish for them up here. But yeah so so I I think you know where we're both coming in is it's not that the fish aren't here it's just that they're under different patterns and you have to be you have to think about it right if you if you head out and you see a bunch of people that look like casual fishermen and they're all stacked up in one spot go to a different spot I'm assuming man I mean you you might want to observe it to see if you see any

Deep Water Summer Pattern And Surf Fluke

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 47:14

rods bending.

Bayside Dave 47:14

Yeah even even so we we had a tournament last week last weekend where we were headed out to Garden State South and my buddy ended up stopping in a few spots he was not going to fish Garden State South because of how many boats were there. Yeah and he knew there was going to be a lot of boats there he's like there's three tournaments there's three fluke tournaments going on he goes there's there's gonna be a hundred hundreds of boats out there so he knew of some good spots which which we hit and we did did pretty well but there was one group of guys it's the Leary family grandfather father son cousins I mean these guys they're the reason why there's there's a lack of fish in the water because the Leary are up so they they were at Garden State South and they're the ones who caught over 80 fish and had six keepers when every no when nobody else was catching because these guys are smart they move around and they fish down current on on the wrecks yeah and they would work one wreck bang bang bang bang bang slow down move next wreck bang bang bang bang bang slow down move they just moved around there was at least two dozen boats if not more in that area and they were just popping around just picking up fish like crazy because these guys are smart they're they're they're they're experienced they're knowledgeable you know yeah grandpa I would say it's good that it's good that they were moving around I would say to up that ratio so you have more keepers than than you did get in tighter on those structures and really slow slow it down.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 48:43

You know you don't have to spot lock but slow them down and use those natural baits. Here here I'll just throw this this is this kind of goes against convention. What you would typically say is you know what I said fish it like you would in in June. You would typically fish smaller baits. I don't think you do that right now. I think you go with the larger baits the especially if you're going natural so a spot would be a great I mean it's it's a great bait no matter what but if you fish it slowly think about it the the fluke doesn't want to be out you know in those if you have this cold upwelling coming through it's hiding up against the structure it's buried in the sand it's going to come out for the right meal. Make it the right meal yeah you know yeah I I could be sitting downstairs on the couch and my son walks by with a cupcake I'm like eh I wish I had a cupcake he walks by with a rack of ribs guess who's getting up off the couch and yeah I'm coming out of the sand I'm I'm going I'm following him into the kitchen I'm following him out to the smoker or whatever it is yeah and I'm getting some ribs right so make it enticing if you're if you're trying to lure them out of an area of comfort make it worth their while because again they are feeding to survive they're not feeding because it tastes good like a cupcake they need they need to collect more calories than they're expending to go get it. Now they're not in survival mode right they're they're not but they are going to be more lethargic there's so much bait around they're still going to get fed and everything like that. It's not like you know it's not like where it's really tough to feed in February. And by the way there are fluke in New Jersey in February. Oh yeah where they're gonna be really picky about it. It's not quite like that but make it enticing make that thing smell put procure on your your stuff if you're not using gulp if you're using gulp make sure you use fresh ones rotate them through so you get fresh scent on there slow it down stick it right in their face move it slowly so they don't have to expend a lot of energy to get it and take your time really hit those spots hard because it may take you a few passes over this little 10 foot window where you had the fluke stacked and again they will stack you just got to find them. And that's where that's where I feel like I can end everything that that I've been saying. And I want to go back and just say this 2024 sucked by all reports. All the public reports and public sentiment kind of lean that way but there were people that absolutely crushed it in 2024 and they did things like this. They did it they fished backwards you know they fished the colder they fished the early season approach some were fishing April approach when they're pre-fishing for the season and they were doing well. The vast majority of people don't do that. They just go out and they fish typical summer fishing and they have the same setups, the same rods, the same approach, the same mile and a half long drifts down the center of a channel and they wonder why they're getting shorts.

Bayside Dave 51:48

Well it's because that's where shorts live that's not where the big fish live I tell you though if if you notice those those shorter fish are more aggressive than the bigger fish. Oh yeah you get a good hit bang that's a 12 incher you get a something you get a big fish what does it do it grabs it and lays down and you're what I'm I'm stuck on the bottom oh it's shaking its head.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 52:07

Yep so yeah slow it down man for those big for those old for those bigger ones I learned I learned that way yeah yeah when I when I'm in an area where I think there are really big fish I learn so I you've seen some of my videos I slam it like I'm a bass fisherman. I try to cross the rise I try to stick that hook right through the bone. You want to turn that fish inside out right but yeah yeah but what I what I used to do is I'd set it and if I didn't and if I wasn't sure if I got it I'd drop the tip right away I will not do that ever again because the biggest the biggest fluke I've ever caught it's always you stick it and it doesn't move. Yeah so you almost feel like I don't know you're like kind of low key embarrassed because you think shit I just I just set on a snag but then the snag moves. You're like oh okay it's a big fish so I don't so much man with those big fish. I am willing to be embarrassed now and you know I have caught the biggest fish doing that. Like they they don't just take off they don't do anything they just you you move them an inch when you set it really hard you know because of the the the the size rod and the equipment that you're using it's not going to move it real easily on that initial set but it is going to set it deep into their mouth. And uh yeah that's just one one thing that I've changed. I don't care if I set and I was wrong and I hooked the bottom I'm gonna be darn sure it's the bottom before I give up on that and put any slack in that line because sometimes just sometimes that's actually a fluke and it's it's one that you don't want to lose. Yeah keep that pressure on keep it on until you're a hundred percent sure and sometimes it'll turn out to be a big ray or something. Yeah but for the most part I mean it's usually going to be a fluke or the bottom it's gonna be one of the two so just don't be afraid to hook the bottom if you thought it was a if you thought when you said it that it was an actual fluke see it through to the end. Yeah through the embarrassment with your buddies laughing and look I fish kayaks Benji's on here I he he would laugh at me like oh how is that you know he would he would make fun of me Joe Billet all these guys these guys would be making fun of me but I'll do it because if if I was right in that split second where I thought it was a a bite I'm keeping that tension on because if I was right I'm gonna kill myself if I find out that I just let a seven pound fluke go because I didn't want I didn't want Benji to make fun of me. Yeah so yeah don't uh don't worry about yeah don't don't be self-conscious when you're fishing no no a lot of people are a lot of people are and I and I'll be honest I sit out there and I watch everybody around me but I'm not judging them I'm just kind of looking at I'm actually trying to pick up like what are they doing that's working? Yeah why are they not catching anything? Am I doing the same thing? I'm constantly trying to evaluate it but yeah don't ever be embarrassed if you if you thought that you had a bite and you set that hook, see it through to the end.

Bayside Dave 55:04

Make sure yeah I agree.

Tournament Lessons Hooksets And Final Advice

Bayside Dave 55:07

Yeah so is there anything that we missed is there anything that you missed I think we kind of went through all the you know the ideas of what people are feel is going on and I honestly think there's nothing going on I'm kind of with worry about right yeah I think we hit it all all my notes are saying we did you know just just keep keep keep at it man and like Rich said slow down and and uh look look for where they're taking cover because that's the thing yeah that's that's the thing just um and look we could be totally wrong Dave and if we are it shouldn't change the approach of people just keep going until you figure it out you will figure it out these fish are not gone they're there and at some point in the day they're eating you just have to find where they're most likely to be and just commit to that spot pound that spot and if you're sure they were there and they just weren't biting try it at another time you gotta move around man I always say that even off you know when I'm surf fishing I mean don't just stand in one spot for two hours you know how many times can you cast in in in in 20 yards and expect a fish to show up you know keep walking man yeah try another spot try the shallows try the deep try the sandbar try the whatever just you'll find them and do the same thing on your boats man like post the pictures or text them to me to me so I can see them we're we're we're still waiting for the baby to show up so I'm I'm really limited on when I can go fishing.

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 56:45

So yeah I love seeing the pictures so and and people did they they sent me I can't share them um but I've I got some really nice fluke picks from this week uh this past seven days in between storms by the way um even after storms now not immediately after but uh you know within a day after the storm some really nice fish so yeah everyone listen thanks for tuning in everyone just make sure you're out there try different things and just keep in mind that you may just have to change up your pattern and your approach but it's nothing that you haven't done before. Just look at the water temperatures look at the conditions make the adjustments and uh send me send me text of those those fish because I'm not gonna be on the water for the next week. Well I might I actually I might be out on Sunday with my brother and with Benji actually grabbing and fishing uh but it all depends on when the baby comes all right Dave thanks again for coming on thanks for having me we're gonna have you back so we can talk about the fall and uh and the and the LBI

Wrap Up And Get After It

Rich Natoli - Fat Dad Fishing 57:48

fishing in the fall but uh thanks everyone for tuning in we'll be back next Monday until then everyone get out there get on the water and get some tight lines